Bitcoin broke above the $10,000 milestone, and just as Fundstrat Global CEO Thomas Lee predicted, investors seem to be entering a “FOMO” phase that could take BTC into a massive rally similar to what happened in the 2017 bull market.
Crypto winter is over… pic.twitter.com/1neKiEzaFA
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) June 16, 2019
This technical analysis will explore different indicators that could be signaling whether the bull market has started and where the market valuation of Bitcoin could go next.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is commonly used by traders to follow the path of a trend and calculate its momentum. A cross of the fast line, the 12-month exponential moving average—above the slow line, the 26-month exponential moving average, indicate a shift in momentum suggesting that an upswing is likely to come. Conversely, when the 26-month EMA crosses above the 12-month EMA, a correction could be expected.
Following the high of December 2017, when Bitcoin hit almost $20,000, it went through a deep correction that started in early January 2018. I began making lower lows and lower highs with the MACD to having a bearish crossover in July. Five months later, BTC broke below $6,000 to reach a low of $3,150 by the end of 2018.
Since the beginning of 2019, Bitcoin has gone through a 225 percent upswing that has taken its market valuation back above $10,000, resulting in a bullish MACD crossover on the 1-month chart.
What recognized traders say
@FlibFlib, a popular technical analyst on Twitter, recently pointed out that this is the third time BTC experienced a bullish MACD cross on the 1-month chart since it was released. The first time was around June 2010, which took it through a 22,600 percent bull market from $5 to $214, and the second one happened in December 2015 that saw BTC rise 5,600 percent from $350 to $19,770.
Bitcoin is about to have its third monthly bullish MACD cross of all time.
Its worked out pretty well in the past.